Income, obesity, and heart disease in US states

The figure below combines data on median income by state (bottom-left and top-right), as well as a plot of heart disease death rates against percentage of population with body mass index (BMI) greater than 30 percent. The data are recent, and have been provided by CNN.com and creativeclass.com, respectively.

Heart disease deaths and obesity are strongly associated with each other, and both are inversely associated with median income. US states with lower median income tend to have generally higher rates of obesity and heart disease deaths.

The reasons are probably many, complex, and closely interconnected. Low income is usually associated with high rates of stress, depression, smoking, alcoholism, and poor nutrition. Compounding the problem, these are normally associated with consumption of cheap, addictive, highly refined foods.

Interestingly, this is primarily an urban phenomenon. If you were to use hunter-gatherers as your data sources, you would probably see the opposite relationship. For example, non-westernized hunter-gatherers have no income (at least not in the “normal” sense), but typically have a lower incidence of obesity and heart disease than mildly westernized ones. The latter have some income.

Tragically, the first few generations of fully westernized hunter-gatherers usually find themselves in the worst possible spot.

Potatoes and Human Health, Part II

Glycoalkaloids in Commonly Eaten Potatoes

Like many edible plants, potatoes contain substances designed to protect them from marauding creatures. The main two substances we're concerned with are alpha-solanine and alpha-chaconine, because they are the most toxic and abundant. Here is a graph of the combined concentration of these two glycoalkaloids in common potato varieties (1):

We can immediately determine three things from this graph:

• Different varieties contain different amounts of glycoalkaloids.
• Common commercial varieties such as russet and white potatoes are low in glycoalkaloids. This is no accident. The glycoalkaloid content of potatoes is monitored in the US.
  
• Most of the glycoalkaloid content is in the skin (within 1 mm of the surface). That way, predators have to eat through poison to get to the flesh. Fortunately, humans have peelers.

I'll jump the gun and tell you that the generally accepted safe level of potato glycoalkaloids is 200 mcg/g fresh weight (1). You can see that all but one variety are well below this level when peeled. Personally, I've never seen the Snowden variety in the store or at the farmer's market. It appears to be used mostly for potato chips.

Glycoalkaloid Toxicity in Animals

Potato glycoalkaloids are undoubtedly toxic at high doses. They have caused many harmful effects in animals and humans, including (1, 2):

• Death (humans and animals)
  
• Weight loss, diarrhea (humans and animals)
  
• Anemia (rabbits)
• Liver damage (rats)
  
• Lower birth weight (mice)
  
• Birth defects (in animals injected with glycoalkaloids)
  
• Increased intestinal permeability (mice)

However, it's important to remember the old saying "the dose makes the poison". The human body is designed to handle a certain amount of plant toxins with no ill effects. Virtually every plant food, and a few animal foods, contains some kind of toxic substance. We're constantly bombarded by gamma rays, ultra violet rays, bacterial toxins, free radicals, and many other potentially harmful substances. In excess, they can be deadly, but we are adapted to dealing with small amounts of them, and the right dose can even be beneficial in some cases.

All of the studies I mentioned above, except one, involved doses of glycoalkaloids that exceed what one could get from eating typical potatoes. They used green or blemished potatoes, isolated potato skins, potato sprouts or isolated glycoalkaloids (more on this later). The single exception is the last study, showing that normal doses of glycoalkaloids can aggravate inflammatory bowel disease in transgenic mice that are genetically predisposed to it (3)*.

What happens when you feed normal animals normal potatoes? Not much. Many studies have shown that they suffer no ill effects whatsoever, even at high intakes (1, 2). This has been shown in primates as well (4, 5, 6). In fact, potato-based diets appear to be generally superior to grain-based diets in animal feed. As early as 1938, Dr. Edward Mellanby showed that grains, but not potatoes, aggravate vitamin A deficiency in rats and dogs (7). This followed his research showing that whole grains, but not potatoes, aggravate vitamin D deficiency due to their high phytic acid content (Mellanby. Nutrition and Disease. 1934). Potatoes were also a prominent part of Mellanby's highly effective tooth decay reversal studies in humans, published in the British Medical Journal in 1932 (8, 9).

Potatoes partially protect rats against the harmful effects of excessive cholesterol feeding, when compared to wheat starch-based feed (10). Potato feeding leads to a better lipid profile and intestinal short-chain fatty acid production than wheat starch or sugar in rats (11). I wasn't able to find a single study showing any adverse effect of normal potato feeding in any normal animal. That's despite reading two long review articles on potato glycoalkaloids and specifically searching PubMed for studies showing a harmful effect. If you know of one, please post it in the comments section.

In the next post, I'll write about the effects of potatoes in the human diet, including data on the health of traditional potato-eating cultures... and a curious experiment by the Washington State Potato Commission that will begin on October 1.


*Interleukin-10 knockout mice. IL-10 is a cytokine involved in the resolution of inflammation and these mice develop inflammatory bowel disease (regardless of diet) due to a reduced capacity to resolve inflammation.

Low nonexercise activity thermogenesis: Uncooperative genes or comfy furniture?

The degree of nonexercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) seems to a major factor influencing the amount of fat gained or lost by an individual. It also seems to be strongly influenced by genetics, because NEAT is largely due to involuntary activities like fidgeting.

But why should this be?

The degree to which different individuals will develop diseases of civilization in response to consumption of refined carbohydrate-rich foods can also be seen as influenced by genetics. After all, there are many people who eat those foods and are thin and healthy, and that appears to be in part a family trait. But whether we consume those products or not is largely within our control.

So, it is quite possible that NEAT is influenced by genetics, but the fact that NEAT is low in so many people should be a red flag. In the same way that the fact that so many people who eat refined carbohydrate-rich foods are obese should be a red flag. Moreover, modern isolated hunter-gatherers tend to have low levels of body fat. Given the importance of NEAT for body fat regulation, it is not unreasonable to assume that NEAT is elevated in hunter-gatherers, compared to modern urbanites. Hunter-gatherers live more like our Paleolithic ancestors than modern urbanites.

True genetic diseases, caused by recent harmful mutations, are usually rare. If low NEAT were truly a genetic “disease”, those with low NEAT should be a small minority. That is not the case. It is more likely that the low NEAT that we see in modern urbanites is due to a maladaptation of our Stone Age body to modern life, in the same way that our Stone Age body is maladapted to the consumption of foods rich in refined grains and seeds.

What could have increased NEAT among our Paleolithic ancestors, and among modern isolated hunter-gatherers?

One thing that comes to mind is lack of comfortable furniture, particularly comfortable chairs (photo below from: prlog.org). It is quite possible that our Paleolithic ancestors invented some rudimentary forms of furniture, but they would have been much less comfortable than modern furniture used in most offices and homes. The padding of comfy office chairs is not very easy to replicate with stones, leaves, wood, or even animal hides. You need engineering to design it; you need industry to produce that kind of thing.

I have been doing a little experiment with myself, where I do things that force me to sit tall and stand while working in my office, instead of sitting back and “relaxing”. Things like putting a pillow on the chair so that I cannot rest my back on it, or placing my computer on an elevated surface so that I am forced to work while standing up. I tend to move a lot more when I do those things, and the movement is largely involuntary. These are small but constant movements, a bit like fidgeting. (It would be interesting to tape myself and actually quantify the amount of movement.)

It seems that one can induce an increase in NEAT, which is largely due to involuntary activities, by doing some voluntary things like placing a pillow on a chair or working while standing up.

Is it possible that the unnaturalness of comfy furniture, and particularly of comfy chairs, is contributing (together with other factors) to not only making us fat but also having low-back problems?

Both obesity and low-back problems are widespread among modern urbanites. Yet, from an evolutionary perspective, they should not be. They likely impaired survival success among our ancestors, and thus impaired their reproductive success. Evolution “gets angry” at these things; over time it wipes them out. In my reading of studies of hunter-gatherers, I don’t recall a single instance in which obesity and low-back problems were described as being widespread.

Potatoes and Human Health, Part I

Potatoes: an Introduction

Over 10,000 years ago, on the shores of lake Titicaca in what is now Peru, a culture began to cultivate a species of wild potato, Solanum tuberosum. They gradually transformed it into a plant that efficiently produces roundish starchy tubers, in a variety of strains that suited the climactic and gastronomic needs of various populations. These early farmers could not have understood at the time that the plant they were selecting would become the most productive crop in the world*, and eventually feed billions of people around the globe.

Wild potatoes, which were likely consumed by hunter-gatherers before domestication, are higher in toxic glycoalkaloids. These are defensive compounds that protect against insects, infections and... hungry animals. Early farmers selected varieties that are low in bitter glycoalkaloids, which are the ancestors of most modern potatoes, however they didn't abandon the high-glycoalkaloid varieties. These were hardier and more tolerant of high altitudes, cold temperatures and pests. Cultures living high in the Andes developed a method to take advantage of these hardy but toxic potatoes, as well as their own harsh climate: they invented chuños. These are made by leaving potatoes out in the open, where they are frozen at night, stomped underfoot and dried in the sun for many days**. What results is a dried potato with a low glycoalkaloid content that can be stored for a year or more.

Nutritional Qualities

From a nutritional standpoint, potatoes have a bad reputation, but this is undeserved in my opinion. If I had to pick a single food to eat exclusively for an extended period of time, potatoes would be high on the list. One reason is that they contain an adequate amount of complete protein, meaning they don't have to be mixed with another protein source as with grains and legumes. Another reason is that a number of cultures throughout history have successfully relied on the potato as their principal source of calories, and several continue to do so. A third reason is that they're eaten in an unrefined, fresh state.

Potatoes contain an adequate amount of many essential minerals, and due to their low phytic acid content (1), the minerals they contain are well absorbed. They're rich in magnesium and copper, two minerals that are important for insulin sensitivity and cardiovascular health (2, 3). They're also high in potassium, which helps control blood pressure, and vitamin C. Overall, they have a micronutrient content that compares favorably with other starchy root vegetables such as taro and cassava (4, 5, 6), and they offer considerably more micronutrients than refined carbohydrates such as white flour, white rice and white sugar.

On the other hand, I don't have to eat potatoes exclusively, so what do they have to offer a mixed diet? They have a high glycemic index, which means they raise blood sugar more than an equivalent serving of most carbohydrate foods, although I'm not convinced that's a problem in people with good blood sugar control (7, 8). They contain adequate fiber, but less than some other sources of starch. For example, sweet potatoes, an unrelated species, contain more micronutrients and fiber, and have been a central food source for healthy cultures (9). However, the main reasons temperate-climate cultures throughout the world eat potatoes is they yield well, they're easily digested, they fill you up and they taste good.

In the next post, I'll delve into the biology and toxicology of potato glycoalkaloids, and review some animal data. In further posts, I'll address the most important question of all: what happens when a person eats mostly potatoes... for months, years, and generations?


* In terms of calories produced per acre.

** A simplified description. The process can actually be rather involved, with several different drying, stomping and leaching steps.

Strong causation can exist without any correlation: The strange case of the chain smokers, and a note about diet

Researchers like to study samples of data and look for associations between variables. Often those associations are represented in the form of correlation coefficients, which go from -1 to 1. Another popular measure of association is the path coefficient, which usually has a narrower range of variation. What many researchers seem to forget is that the associations they find depend heavily on the sample they are looking at, and on the ranges of variation of the variables being analyzed.

A forgotten warning: Causation without correlation

Often those who conduct multivariate statistical analyses on data are unaware of certain limitations. Many times this is due to lack of familiarity with statistical tests. One warning we do see a lot though is: Correlation does not imply causation. This is, of course, absolutely true. If you take my weight from 1 to 20 years of age, and the price of gasoline in the US during that period, you will find that they are highly correlated. But common sense tells me that there is no causation whatsoever between these two variables.

So correlation does not imply causation alright, but there is another warning that is rarely seen: There can be strong causation without any correlation. Of course this can lead to even more bizarre conclusions than the “correlation does not imply causation” problem. If there is strong causation between variables B and Y, and it is not showing as a correlation, another variable A may “jump in” and “steal” that “unused correlation”; so to speak.

The chain smokers “study”

To illustrate this point, let us consider the following fictitious case, a study of “100 cities”. The study focuses on the effect of smoking and genes on lung cancer mortality. Smoking significantly increases the chances of dying from lung cancer; it is a very strong causative factor. Here are a few more details. Between 35 and 40 percent of the population are chain smokers. And there is a genotype (a set of genes), found in a small percentage of the population (around 7 percent), which is protective against lung cancer. All of those who are chain smokers die from lung cancer unless they die from other causes (e.g., accidents). Dying from other causes is a lot more common among those who have the protective genotype.

(I created this fictitious data with these associations in mind, using equations. I also added uncorrelated error into the equations, to make the data look a bit more realistic. For example, random deaths occurring early in life would reduce slightly any numeric association between chain smoking and cancer deaths in the sample of 100 cities.)

The table below shows part of the data, and gives an idea of the distribution of percentage of smokers (Smokers), percentage with the protective genotype (Pgenotype), and percentage of lung cancer deaths (MLCancer). (Click on it to enlarge. Use the "CRTL" and "+" keys to zoom in, and CRTL" and "-" to zoom out.) Each row corresponds to a city. The rest of the data, up to row 100, has a similar distribution.

The graphs below show the distribution of lung cancer deaths against: (a) the percentage of smokers, at the top; and (b) the percentage with the protective genotype, at the bottom. Correlations are shown at the top of each graph. (They can vary from -1 to 1. The closer they are to -1 or 1, the stronger is the association, negative or positive, between the variables.) The correlation between lung cancer deaths and percentage of smokers is slightly negative and statistically insignificant (-0.087). The correlation between lung cancer deaths and percentage with the protective genotype is negative, strong, and statistically significant (-0.613).

Even though smoking significantly increases the chances of dying from lung cancer, the correlations tell us otherwise. The correlations tell us that lung cancer does not seem to cause lung cancer deaths, and that having the protective genotype seems to significantly decrease cancer deaths. Why?

If there is no variation, there is no correlation

The reason is that the “researchers” collected data only about chain smokers. That is, the variable “Smokers” includes only chain smokers. If this was not a fictitious case, focusing the study on chain smokers could be seen as a clever strategy employed by researchers funded by tobacco companies. The researchers could say something like this: “We focused our analysis on those most likely to develop lung cancer.” Or, this could have been the result of plain stupidity when designing the research project.

By restricting their study to chain smokers the researchers dramatically reduced the variability in one particular variable: the extent to which the study participants smoked. Without variation, there can be no correlation. No matter what statistical test or software is used, no significant association will be found between lung cancer deaths and percentage of smokers based on this dataset. No matter what statistical test or software is used, a significant and strong association will be found between lung cancer deaths and percentage with the protective genotype.

Of course, this could lead to a very misleading conclusion. Smoking does not cause lung cancer; the real cause is genetic.

A note about diet

Consider the analogy between smoking and consumption of a particular food, and you will probably see what this means for the analysis of observational data regarding dietary choices and disease. This applies to almost any observational study, including the China Study. (Studies employing experimental control manipulations would presumably ensure enough variation in the variables studied.) In the China Study, data from dozens of counties were collected. One may find a significant association between consumption of food A and disease Y.

There may be a much stronger association between food B and disease Y, but that association may not show up in statistical analyses at all, simply because there is little variation in the data regarding consumption of food B. For example, all those sampled may have eaten food B; about the same amount. Or none. Or somewhere in between, within a rather small range of variation.

Statistical illiteracy, bad choices, and taxation

Statistics is a “necessary evil”. It is useful to go from small samples to large ones when we study any possible causal association. By doing so, one can find out whether an observed effect really applies to a larger percentage of the population, or is actually restricted to a small group of individuals. The problem is that we humans are very bad at inferring actual associations from simply looking at large tables with numbers. We need statistical tests for that.

However, ignorance about basic statistical phenomena, such as the one described here, can be costly. A group of people may eliminate food A from their diet based on coefficients of association resulting from what seem to be very clever analyses, replacing it with food B. The problem is that food B may be equally harmful, or even more harmful. And, that effect may not show up on statistical analyses unless they have enough variation in the consumption of food B.

Readers of this blog may wonder why we explicitly use terms like “suggests” when we refer to a relationship that is suggested by a significant coefficient of association (e.g., a linear correlation). This is why, among other reasons.

One does not have to be a mathematician to understand basic statistical concepts. And doing so can be very helpful in one’s life in general, not only in diet and lifestyle decisions. Even in simple choices, such as what to be on. We are always betting on something. For example, any investment is essentially a bet. Some outcomes are much more probable than others.

Once I had an interesting conversation with a high-level officer of a state government. I was part of a consulting team working on an information technology project. We were talking about the state lottery, which was a big source of revenue for the state, comparing it with state taxes. He told me something to this effect:

Our lottery is essentially a tax on the statistically illiterate.

Speaking at Wise Traditions 2010

I'm happy to announce that I'll be presenting at the Weston A. Price foundation's 2010 Wise Traditions conference. The conference will be held in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, Nov 12-14. The theme is the politics of food.

Sally Fallon Morell has invited me to give a talk on the diet and health of Pacific islanders. The talk will be titled "Kakana Dina: Diet and Health in the Pacific Islands", and it will take place on Sunday, November 14th from 4:00 to 5:20 pm. In preparation for the talk, I've read eight books and countless journal articles. Although some of the material will be familiar to people who follow the blog, I will not be rehashing what I've already published. I have nearly an hour and a half to talk, so I'll be going into some depth on the natural history and traditional food habits of Pacific island populations. Not just macronutrient breakdowns... specific foods and traditional preparation methods.

Learn about the health of traditional Pacific island populations, and what has changed since Western contact. Learn about traditional cooking and fermentation techniques. See unpublished photos from the Kitava study, courtesy of Dr. Staffan Lindeberg. Learn about the nutritional and ceremonial role of mammals including pork... and the most gruesome food of all.

I hope to see you there!


Kitava photo courtesy of Dr. Staffan Lindeberg

The China Study II: Wheat flour, rice, and cardiovascular disease

In my last post on the China Study II, I analyzed the effect of total and HDL cholesterol on mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. The main conclusion was that total and HDL cholesterol were protective. Total and HDL cholesterol usually increase with intake of animal foods, and particularly of animal fat. The lowest mortality from all cardiovascular diseases was in the highest total cholesterol range, 172.5 to 180; and the highest mortality in the lowest total cholesterol range, 120 to 127.5. The difference was quite large; the mortality in the lowest range was approximately 3.3 times higher than in the highest.

This post focuses on the intake of two main plant foods, namely wheat flour and rice intake, and their relationships with mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. After many exploratory multivariate analyses, wheat flour and rice emerged as the plant foods with the strongest associations with mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, wheat flour and rice have a strong and inverse relationship with each other, which suggests a “consumption divide”. Since the data is from China in the late 1980s, it is likely that consumption of wheat flour is even higher now. As you’ll see, this picture is alarming.

The main model and results

All of the results reported here are from analyses conducted using WarpPLS. Below is the model with the main results of the analyses. (Click on it to enlarge. Use the "CRTL" and "+" keys to zoom in, and CRTL" and "-" to zoom out.) The arrows explore associations between variables, which are shown within ovals. The meaning of each variable is the following: SexM1F2 = sex, with 1 assigned to males and 2 to females; MVASC = mortality from all cardiovascular diseases (ages 35-69); TKCAL = total calorie intake per day; WHTFLOUR = wheat flour intake (g/day); and RICE = and rice intake (g/day).

The variables to the left of MVASC are the main predictors of interest in the model. The one to the right is a control variable – SexM1F2. The path coefficients (indicated as beta coefficients) reflect the strength of the relationships. A negative beta means that the relationship is negative; i.e., an increase in a variable is associated with a decrease in the variable that it points to. The P values indicate the statistical significance of the relationship; a P lower than 0.05 generally means a significant relationship (95 percent or higher likelihood that the relationship is “real”).

In summary, the model above seems to be telling us that:

- As rice intake increases, wheat flour intake decreases significantly (beta=-0.84; P<0.01). This relationship would be the same if the arrow pointed in the opposite direction. It suggests that there is a sharp divide between rice-consuming and wheat flour-consuming regions.

- As wheat flour intake increases, mortality from all cardiovascular diseases increases significantly (beta=0.32; P<0.01). This is after controlling for the effects of rice and total calorie intake. That is, wheat flour seems to have some inherent properties that make it bad for one’s health, even if one doesn’t consume that many calories.

- As rice intake increases, mortality from all cardiovascular diseases decreases significantly (beta=-0.24; P<0.01). This is after controlling for the effects of wheat flour and total calorie intake. That is, this effect is not entirely due to rice being consumed in place of wheat flour. Still, as you’ll see later in this post, this relationship is nonlinear. Excessive rice intake does not seem to be very good for one’s health either.

- Increases in wheat flour and rice intake are significantly associated with increases in total calorie intake (betas=0.25, 0.33; P<0.01). This may be due to wheat flour and rice intake: (a) being themselves, in terms of their own caloric content, main contributors to the total calorie intake; or (b) causing an increase in calorie intake from other sources. The former is more likely, given the effect below.

- The effect of total calorie intake on mortality from all cardiovascular diseases is insignificant when we control for the effects of rice and wheat flour intakes (beta=0.08; P=0.35). This suggests that neither wheat flour nor rice exerts an effect on mortality from all cardiovascular diseases by increasing total calorie intake from other food sources.

- Being female is significantly associated with a reduction in mortality from all cardiovascular diseases (beta=-0.24; P=0.01). This is to be expected. In other words, men are women with a few design flaws, so to speak. (This situation reverses itself a bit after menopause.)

Wheat flour displaces rice

The graph below shows the shape of the association between wheat flour intake (WHTFLOUR) and rice intake (RICE). The values are provided in standardized format; e.g., 0 is the mean (a.k.a. average), 1 is one standard deviation above the mean, and so on. The curve is the best-fitting U curve obtained by the software. It actually has the shape of an exponential decay curve, which can be seen as a section of a U curve. This suggests that wheat flour consumption has strongly displaced rice consumption in several regions in China, and also that wherever rice consumption is high wheat flour consumption tends to be low.

As wheat flour intake goes up, so does cardiovascular disease mortality

The graphs below show the shapes of the association between wheat flour intake (WHTFLOUR) and mortality from all cardiovascular diseases (MVASC). In the first graph, the values are provided in standardized format; e.g., 0 is the mean (or average), 1 is one standard deviation above the mean, and so on. In the second graph, the values are provided in unstandardized format and organized in terciles (each of three equal intervals).

The curve in the first graph is the best-fitting U curve obtained by the software. It is a quasi-linear relationship. The higher the consumption of wheat flour in a county, the higher seems to be the mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. The second graph suggests that mortality in the third tercile, which represents a consumption of wheat flour of 501 to 751 g/day (a lot!), is 69 percent higher than mortality in the first tercile (0 to 251 g/day).

Rice seems to be protective, as long as intake is not too high

The graphs below show the shapes of the association between rice intake (RICE) and mortality from all cardiovascular diseases (MVASC). In the first graph, the values are provided in standardized format. In the second graph, the values are provided in unstandardized format and organized in terciles.

Here the relationship is more complex. The lowest mortality is clearly in the second tercile (206 to 412 g/day). There is a lot of variation in the first tercile, as suggested by the first graph with the U curve. (Remember, as rice intake goes down, wheat flour intake tends to go up.) The U curve here looks similar to the exponential decay curve shown earlier in the post, for the relationship between rice and wheat flour intake.

In fact, the shape of the association between rice intake and mortality from all cardiovascular diseases looks a bit like an “echo” of the shape of the relationship between rice and wheat flour intake. Here is what is creepy. This echo looks somewhat like the first curve (between rice and wheat flour intake), but with wheat flour intake replaced by “death” (i.e., mortality from all cardiovascular diseases).

What does this all mean?

- Wheat flour displacing rice does not look like a good thing. Wheat flour intake seems to have strongly displaced rice intake in the counties where it is heavily consumed. Generally speaking, that does not seem to have been a good thing. It looks like this is generally associated with increased mortality from all cardiovascular diseases.

- High glycemic index food consumption does not seem to be the problem here. Wheat flour and rice have very similar glycemic indices (but generally not glycemic loads; see below). Both lead to blood glucose and insulin spikes. Yet, rice consumption seems protective when it is not excessive. This is true in part (but not entirely) because it largely displaces wheat flour. Moreover, neither rice nor wheat flour consumption seems to be significantly associated with cardiovascular disease via an increase in total calorie consumption. This is a bit of a blow to the theory that high glycemic carbohydrates necessarily cause obesity, diabetes, and eventually cardiovascular disease.

- The problem with wheat flour is … hard to pinpoint, based on the results summarized here. Maybe it is the fact that it is an ultra-refined carbohydrate-rich food; less refined forms of wheat could be healthier. In fact, the glycemic loads of less refined carbohydrate-rich foods tend to be much lower than those of more refined ones. (Also, boiled brown rice has a glycemic load that is about three times lower than that of whole wheat bread; whereas the glycemic indices are about the same.) Maybe the problem is wheat flour's  gluten content. Maybe it is a combination of various factors, including these.

Reference

Kock, N. (2010). WarpPLS 1.0 User Manual. Laredo, Texas: ScriptWarp Systems.

Acknowledgment and notes

- Many thanks are due to Dr. Campbell and his collaborators for collecting and compiling the data used in this analysis. The data is from this site, created by those researchers to disseminate their work in connection with a study often referred to as the “China Study II”. It has already been analyzed by other bloggers. Notable analyses have been conducted by Ricardo at Canibais e Reis, Stan at Heretic, and Denise at Raw Food SOS.

- The path coefficients (indicated as beta coefficients) reflect the strength of the relationships; they are a bit like standard univariate (or Pearson) correlation coefficients, except that they take into consideration multivariate relationships (they control for competing effects on each variable). Whenever nonlinear relationships were modeled, the path coefficients were automatically corrected by the software to account for nonlinearity.

- The software used here identifies non-cyclical and mono-cyclical relationships such as logarithmic, exponential, and hyperbolic decay relationships. Once a relationship is identified, data values are corrected and coefficients calculated. This is not the same as log-transforming data prior to analysis, which is widely used but only works if the underlying relationship is logarithmic. Otherwise, log-transforming data may distort the relationship even more than assuming that it is linear, which is what is done by most statistical software tools.

- The R-squared values reflect the percentage of explained variance for certain variables; the higher they are, the better the model fit with the data. In complex and multi-factorial phenomena such as health-related phenomena, many would consider an R-squared of 0.20 as acceptable. Still, such an R-squared would mean that 80 percent of the variance for a particularly variable is unexplained by the data.

- The P values have been calculated using a nonparametric technique, a form of resampling called jackknifing, which does not require the assumption that the data is normally distributed to be met. This and other related techniques also tend to yield more reliable results for small samples, and samples with outliers (as long as the outliers are “good” data, and are not the result of measurement error).

- Only two data points per county were used (for males and females). This increased the sample size of the dataset without artificially reducing variance, which is desirable since the dataset is relatively small. This also allowed for the test of commonsense assumptions (e.g., the protective effects of being female), which is always a good idea in a complex analysis because violation of commonsense assumptions may suggest data collection or analysis error. On the other hand, it required the inclusion of a sex variable as a control variable in the analysis, which is no big deal.

- Since all the data was collected around the same time (late 1980s), this analysis assumes a somewhat static pattern of consumption of rice and wheat flour. In other words, let us assume that variations in consumption of a particular food do lead to variations in mortality. Still, that effect will typically take years to manifest itself. This is a major limitation of this dataset and any related analyses.

- Mortality from schistosomiasis infection (MSCHIST) does not confound the results presented here. Only counties where no deaths from schistosomiasis infection were reported have been included in this analysis. Mortality from all cardiovascular diseases (MVASC) was measured using the variable M059 ALLVASCc (ages 35-69). See this post for other notes that apply here as well.